Standard errors: Demystifying the CMIE numbers to explain ‘curious’ trends

The sample for CMIE’s weekly estimates is of the order of 30,000 respondents and that for the monthly estimates is 130,000, with minor variations every week or month

Mahesh Vyas

A sharp rise in unemployment rate during the third week of April and then a sharper fall in the fourth week caught the attention of the stylish and sometimes combative TV anchor, Karan Thapar. He quizzed me on his show, ‘UpFront with Karan Thapar’, on April 29 on the zig-zag nature of unemployment rates being put out by CMIE recently. The rate rose during December, January and February.

But it dipped sharply in March 2019. It was shooting up during the first three weeks of April, but then it nose-dived last week. I explained that, a few deviations apart, the trend was undeniably …

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