India may have 7 million COVID cases by October

It took India a little less than 21 days to add another million to its COVID-tally. As of today (September 12), the official data suggests that there are over 4.66 million infection cases in the country, with one of the sharpest daily surges recorded in the past week.

Despite heavy lockdowns and graded reopenings in some cities, the caseload is only rising in an alarming way. Delhi, Mumbai, too, are witnessing a peak in cases once again.

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Despite what we hear, the coronavirus outbreak in India is nowhere close to being over. As per newer studies, the surge in daily new infections is only going to rise. Research by a team of analysts from BITS, Hyderabad estimate that India might soon cross a whopping 7 million cases by October, surpassing the US to become the worst affection nation by the pandemic.

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India is currently the second-worst affection nation by COVID-19. Despite a mortality rate on the lower side and a good recovery rate, experts have long debated that different cities in India will peak at different times. If the study holds true, the situation calls for urgent prevention steps to be undertaken to get a better hold of the crisis at large.

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The findings of the study have been done using advanced statistical modelling in place by mapping existing data. The study has also been sent to the ‘International Journal of Infectious Diseases’ for further analysis.

Basing the study on the number of tests being done right now, researchers have predicted that the country will have the most number of active cases in the world in a matter of weeks.

“Our results obtained using a model based on statistical learning techniques applied to the existing data, indicate that India is likely to become the top COVID-19 country in the world, surpassing the United States by about the first week of October, that is in about a month’s time. The total number of cases is also likely to cross the 70-lakh mark by this time.”, said a professor, Dr TSL Radhika of the Department of Applied Mathematics, BITS Pilani, Hyderabad.

Researchers are also working on using advanced tools to made predictions for the longer term as well, considering that living with the virus might become our new normal.

(Image used for representational purposes only)

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A surge in infection rates is alarming for any country. But, for a country like ours, this is a double whammy. Not only is India testing at lower rates than other nations, but the healthcare system is also only beginning to cope with the pandemic.

From a few thousand cases in April to a whopping 45 lakh record as of September, it’s clear that the spread of virus is a lot more rampant and scary than what has been observed in other countries.

Despite a staggered lockdown in place, which experts even went on to term one of harshest in the world, the resurgence of the virus is only an indication of how we might be taking things lightly.

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The rise in numbers has been more rampant and sharp than before. The country has been witnessing the sharpest rise in the per day caseload for over a month.

Unlike the West, the pandemic is playing out in a two-fold manner, affecting both the urban and the rural areas.

While lockdowns and staggered reopenings were successful in slowing down the virus, nonetheless, it did make it way through the vulnerable sectors. When people started moving back to cities and travelling reopened, we also witnessed an increase in cases.

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India’s poor health infrastructure is also to blame. Experts worry that there’s still not enough testing which is being done right now. Hospitals and dedicated medical centres are also crippling with cases in different parts of the country.

In the lack of a uniform policy, well-structured healthcare to handle the virus, the cases can only continue to rise.

The problem with lax rules is also making the virus make its presence felt more evidently. From the flouting of safety rules, people travelling without wearing masks, lack of social distancing in places, there are a lot of reasons which is adding to concerns.

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Most countries which witnessed a spike earlier than India have been able to somewhat manage and ‘flatten’ the curve. Considering the rise in cases, epidemiologists have said that flattening the curve or stopping new infections to help manage present cases better is a way to tackle the virus. It’s one necessary approach which will help us find a way out to deal with the outbreak.

However, there’s no real answer to this. Considering the demographic diversity, healthcare facilities and weather conditions, different cities could peak and beat the virus during different months. The only way to really fight the virus, as a whole would be to have a better system in place. From strong awareness, preventive measures, strict rules and most importantly, practising safety on a personal level will help save many lives.

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India is seeing research and trials being done on as many as 3 COVID vaccines (Oxford University trials have been brought to a halt). India’s health minister, Dr Harsh Vardhan spoke confidently that authorities would be able to control the spread of the epidemic by the end of the year and a vaccine made available to the public by early months of 2021.

Talks with the Russian authorities, to make Sputnik-V available in India are also being considered.

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While a vaccine is one of the ways to prevent the vaccine from causing further damage, there’s no real evidence to suggest that the first vaccine made available to us will solve all ills. From the safety, dosage, administration and production, a lot of factors need to be taken into consideration before we pin our hopes on a vaccine.

There are also newer researches which suggest that a vaccine may not be the most effective tool to fight the pandemic. People should continue to practice high levels of social distancing, restrictions, wear a mask to control transmission rates.

Hence, not just a vaccine, but the pandemic would require behavioural changes on a personal and social level to end the COVID wave in India.

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